Blue Spot

Obama's bump is gone, poll says - 2008 Presidential Campaign Blog - Political Intelligence - Boston.com

CBS just reported that the bump in support that Barack Obama received after the Democratic convention last week has evaporated.

Obama led Republican John McCain 48 percent to 40 percent in national surveying finished on Sunday. But in the new poll, the two are tied at 42 percent, after one speech after another at the GOP convention blasting Obama.

And that was before vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin spoke Wednesday night before about 40 million viewers, and before McCain's acceptance speech tonight.

Labels: General Election 2008, polls

For Obama, The Latest News Is Not Good - Yahoo! News

John McCain's current ads and comments on Obama are false, ridiculous and beneath contempt. But they are working. The public is lapping up McCain's garbage. And Obama better do something to change that if he wants to be the next president.

McCain's success in taking the low road is reflected in the two big national tracking polls -- by Gallup and Rasmussen -- that canvass approximately 1,000 people every day and report a three-day moving average of results. Gallup's latest results show that, as of Friday, the race has become a dead heat, with Obama and McCain each with 44 per cent of the vote. Rasmussen's latest surveys show Obama ahead by a single point, 47 to 46. That means Obama has lost virtually the entire lead he gained on his trip abroad.

Labels: General Election 2008, polls

FL Poll: McCain +6 - Real Clear Politics - Elections 2008 - TIME

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida shows McCain leading Obama by 6 points (August 1-3, 679 LV, MoE +/- 3.8%). Obama leads in southeastern Florida, while McCain leads by large margins in all other regions.

McCain 50
Obama 44
Und 3

Wouldn't it be poetic justice if it all came down to FL again?

Labels: General Election 2008, polls

John McCain picks up steam in Colorado and Minnesota | Top of the Ticket | Los Angeles Times

If John McCain and his loyalists were hoping for something to brighten their day amid the blizzard of coverage of Barack Obama's foreign tour, they've gotten it with new poll results from four key states -- Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The survey by the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, conducted between July 14 and Tuesday, contains especially good news for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee in Colorado and Minnesota.

In Colorado, the one state among the four that President Bush carried in 2004, the poll showed McCain ahead by 2 percentage points. That lead is within the poll's margin of error, but it represents a positive trend for the Arizona senator; in a Quinnipiac survey a month ago, Obama led in the state by 5 percentage points.

The poll found McCain making even greater strides in Minnesota, host of the convention where McCain will formally become his party's nominee in early September. Obama's advantage over McCain there now is negligible -- 2 percentage points -- compared with a 17-point lead the same survey gave the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee in June.

Here are the new results:

Colorado (nine electoral votes): McCain 46%, Obama 44% (in June, Obama 49%, McCain 44%).

Michigan (17 electoral votes): Obama 46%, McCain 42% (in June, Obama 48%, McCain 42%).

Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Obama 46%, McCain 44% (in June, Obama 54%, McCain 37%).

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Obama, 50%, McCain 39% (in June, Obama 52%, McCain 39%).

The Quinnipiac release on its poll notes that McCain "has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters."

Summarizing the change over the last month, Peter Brown, the poll's assistant director, says that Obama's "post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit."

Read the rest here.

Labels: General Election 2008, polls

VOA News - Survey: US Hispanics Favor Obama Over McCain by Wide Margin

Senator McCain represents Arizona, a state that borders Mexico and has a large Latin American immigrant community. Unlike Senator Obama, who is relatively new to the national spotlight, McCain is well known as a longtime advocate of many causes that are popular among Hispanics, including comprehensive immigration reform.

It is therefore all the more surprising that the latest poll shows Hispanics backing Obama over McCain by a ratio of nearly three-to-one.

The survey of more than 2,000 registered voters of Latin American descent was conducted by the Washington-based Pew Hispanic Center. Sixty-six percent of respondents said they support Senator Obama, compared to 23 percent for Senator McCain. Seventy-six percent of respondents said they view Obama favorably, while 44 percent said they have a favorable view of McCain.


Sen. John McCain
Although the U.S. Hispanic community is diverse, from Cuban-Americans in Florida to Mexican-Americans in California, the Pew survey showed little variance among the segments of the community that were identified in the poll.

"This support for Obama is quite broad-based, and there are few differences within demographic groups. We did not detect important differences in support for Barack Obama between Hispanic registered voters who were born in the United States and those who are immigrants. We also did not detect differences in support for Obama between Latino voters who preferred to be interviewed in Spanish and those who preferred to be interviewed in English," said Susan Minushkin, the Pew Hispanic Center's deputy director.

The survey numbers seem to indicate a dramatic turnaround in Obama's fortunes among Hispanics. During the primary season, they voted overwhelmingly for Obama's rival, Senator Hillary Clinton. Some analysts at the time suggested a racial component to the trend, given friction and economic competition between Hispanics and African Americans for lower-paying jobs.

But the Pew survey finds only 11 percent of Hispanics view Obama's race as a detriment, while more than half say the fact that he is black makes no difference to them. A similar proportion said McCain's race is unimportant.

Read the rest here.

Labels: General Election 2008, Latino community, polls

RTÉ News: Obama's lead over McCain drops

US presidential hopeful Barack Obama leads rival John McCain by three percentage points, according to a Newsweek poll.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by three percentage points in the Newsweek poll released on today, a marked change from the Democrat's 15-point lead last month.

Democratic candidate Senator Obama captured 44% of respondents' support in the poll, compared to Republican opponent Senator McCain's 41%, a statistically-insignificant margin.

15% were undecided.

A 20 June Newsweek poll showed Senator Obama leading 51% to Senator McCain's 36%.

In the new poll, 53% of voters, including 50% of those who formerly supported Mr Obama's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, believe that Mr Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.

Labels: General Election 2008, polls

Newsweek: Obama's Lead Slips - Real Clear Politics - Elections 2008 - TIME

Newsweek turned heads with a poll two weeks ago touting a massive 15-point lead for Obama. Their newest survey has heads turning in the other direction, showing Obama's lead dwindling to just 3 points over McCain:

Obama 44 (-7)
McCain 41 (+5)
Undecided 15 (+2)

In the Newsweek poll, Obama's support among Republicans and Democrats was basically unchanged, but his support among Independents dropped 14 points, to 34% from 48% two weeks ago.

McCain increased his support among Republicans by five points (to 83% from 78%) and among Independents by five points (to 41% from 36%).

Slicing the data by race and gender, Obama lost nine points among white voters (dropping from 45% to 36%) and nine points among women (dropping from 54% two weeks ago to 45% in the most recent poll).

Overall, Obama's lead in the RCP National Average is now 4.8%.

Labels: General Election 2008, McCain, Obama, polls

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - New CNN Poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat « - Blogs from CNN.com

(CNN) — With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.

With just over four months remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, the new survey out Tuesday indicates Obama holds a narrow 5-point advantage among registered voters nationwide over the Arizona senator, 50 percent to 45 percent. That represents little change from a similar poll one month ago, when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee held a 46-43 percent edge over McCain.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes Tuesday's survey confirms what a string of national polls released this month have shown: Obama holds a slight advantage over McCain, though not a big enough one to constitute a statistical lead.

"Every standard telephone poll taken in June has shown Obama ahead of McCain, with nearly all of them showing Obama's margin somewhere between three and six points," Holland said. "In most of them, that margin is not enough to give him a lead in a statistical sense, but it appears that June has been a good month for Obama."

But the new CNN/ORC polls shows the race gets even tighter when the two most prominent third-party presidential candidates are considered. In a four way match-up that includes independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, Obama's lead over McCain dwindles to 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. (Nader registers 6 percent while Barr gets 3 percent.)

You would think Obama would have a huge lead by now considering his overwhelming money advantage, the flurry of endorsements, support from almost the entire blogosphere and a very generous main stram media.

Labels: General Election 2008, McCain, Obama, polls

Views of whites, Latinos toward Barack Obama analyzed | Top of the Ticket | Los Angeles Times

Mark Feierstein and Ana Iparraguirre write that Obama's relatively weak performance among Latinos in his primary battle with Hillary Clinton (who dominated among those voters) "has helped fan the idea that he has a Latino problem or that Hispanics are disinclined to vote for black candidates."

Not so, they contend. They note that national polls have shown that Obama "is running well ahead of John McCain among Hispanics, and significantly better than John Kerry did against George Bush in 2004."

That may be how it plays out ...

... in November's vote, but before then both Obama and McCain apparently have some repair work to do with Latino media outlets, including bloggers.

I think you can add me to this list.

Labels: General Election 2008, Latino community, polls

Obama has narrow lead on McCain: Reuters poll | Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow 5-point lead on Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race, but holds a big early edge with the crucial swing voting blocs of independents and women, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Two weeks after clinching the Democratic nomination and kicking off the general election campaign, Obama leads McCain by 47 percent to 42 percent. That is down slightly from Obama's 8-point advantage on McCain in May, before Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York left the Democratic race.

But Obama holds a big 52 percent to 30 percent edge among independents and 51 percent to 36 percent among women -- two critical voting blocs that could help determine the winner in November's presidential election.

Labels: General Election 2008, polls

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Polls: Clinton does better in the swing states « - Blogs from CNN.com

(CNN) — A new series of Quinnipiac polls out of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania appear to bolster Hillary Clinton's argument that she is better positioned than Barack Obama to beat John McCain in the crucial swing states.

According to the polls released Thursday, Hillary Clinton would beat John McCain in all three states by wide margins while Barack Obama would lose to the Arizona senator in Ohio and Florida and narrowly beat McCain in Pennsylvania.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said the poll could be a potential "early-warning sign."

Specifically, the poll found Clinton tops McCain in Florida by 7 points (48 percent to 41 percent), in Ohio by 7 points (48 percent to 41 percent) and in Pennsylvania by 13 percent (50 percent to 37 percent).

Meanwhile the poll finds McCain would beat Obama by 4 points in Florida (45-41 percent) and by 4 points in Ohio (44 percent to 40 percent). Obama beats McCain in Pennsylvania, but by a narrower margin than Clinton does — he beats McCain by 6 points there, 46 percent to 40 percent.

According to Quinnipiac, the difference between Clinton and Obama's performances in the state can be traced to the fact that several Clinton supporters and white working class voters there say they will support McCain over Obama if the Illinois senator is the party's nominee.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, McCain, Obama, polls

Clinton closing in Oregon polls - 2008 Presidential Campaign Blog - Political Intelligence - Boston.com The latest pre-primary polls suggest that Hillary Clinton has faint hopes of stalling Barack Obama's march to the Democratic nomination.

Obama had been leading by double digits in Oregon, where he expects to win on Tuesday, enabling him to declare victory in the pledged delegate race and perhaps sew up the nomination.

But the latest polls in Oregon show Clinton within striking distance. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent refusing a response, according to a Suffolk University survey released this morning. An American Research Group survey puts Obama's lead at 50 percent to 45 percent.

Obama, however, appears to be confident of victory. Today, he does not plan to campaign in Oregon, instead stumping in Montana, which votes June 3. He has already scheduled a huge outdoor victory rally Tuesday night in Iowa, a battleground state in November and where his victory in the January caucuses propelled him to the front of the pack.

Clinton, on the other hand, continues to lead handily in every poll in Kentucky, which also votes Tuesday. In a Suffolk survey released today, she leads Obama 51 percent to 25 percent, followed by John Edwards with 6 percent, "uncommitted" with 5 percent, while 11 percent were undecided.

But she isn't taking any chances and hopes to win big enough to cut into Obama's lead in the total popular vote, campaigning all day in the Bluegrass State. She plans her primary night rally in Louisville.

The tale of two states voting Tuesday demonstrates again the demographic divide in the Democratic race -- blue-collar voters for Clinton, more affluent and more educated voters for Obama.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, polls

IN Poll: Clinton +12 - Real Clear Politics - Elections 2008 - TIME SurveyUSA's

latest (May 2-4) has Clinton extending her lead in Indiana to twelve points:

Clinton 54 (+2 vs. last poll April 25-27)
Obama 42 (-1)

Overall, Clinton leads by 5.8% in the RCP Average for Indiana.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, polls

Poll: Flap over pastor hurts Obama - USATODAY.com

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he's favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton's uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August.

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

In February, Democrats and Democratic leaners by 33 points said Obama had a better shot at beating Republican John McCain in November. Clinton is now seen as the stronger candidate by 5 points.

Click here for poll results.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, Obama, polls, Rev. Wright

IN & NC Polls: Not Great News For Obama - Real Clear Politics - Elections 2008 - TIME

Insider Advantage has released new polls in Indiana and North Carolina, with less than stellar results for Obama. However, in a poll released earlier this week, I.A. actually had Clinton leading in North Carolina -- Obama's now regained the lead there.

Indiana

Clinton 47
Obama 40

Clinton leads by 6.2 points in the RCP Average for Indiana

North Carolina

Obama 49 (+7 vs. last poll, April 29)
Clinton 44 (nc)

Obama leads by 8.2 points in the RCP Average for North Carolina

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, Obama, polls

Clinton gets bump in polls - 2008 Presidential Campaign Blog - Political Intelligence - Boston.com

The polls are starting to show a post-Pennsylvania bump for Hillary Clinton and could buttress her argument to voters in Indiana and North Carolina that she would be the stronger Democratic nominee in November.

In an Associated Press/Ipsos survey released today, Clinton now leads Republican John McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Barack Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.

And in the Gallup daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain 47 to 44 percent while Obama and McCain are tied at 45 percent. Also, Clinton and Obama are tied at 47 percent among Democrats in the tracking poll -- a 5-percentage-point gain for Clinton since she won the Pennsylvania primary last Tuesday.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, polls

Clinton hits double-digit lead in bellwether poll - 2008 Presidential Campaign Blog - Political Intelligence - Boston.com

Hillary Clinton could snag the double-digit win she wants in Pennsylvania today, according to an election-eve poll of Democrats in a bellwether county.

She led Barack Obama 52 percent to 40 percent in polling conducted Sunday and Monday in Allegheny County around Pittsburgh in a Suffolk University survey released today, a slightly larger margin than the statewide Suffolk poll done over the weekend.

Suffolk pollsters say they used similar bellwether counties to correctly predict results in prior Democratic primaries in New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Ohio. They picked Allegheny County because its election results mirrored the statewide results in the 1988 and 2000 Democratic and Republican primaries.

“A cautionary word or two: Past bellwether performance is a guide but not a 100 percent guarantee of future performance,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement. “New bellwethers often are created every election cycle as people migrate and as development and geography-driven issues emerge. In addition, local endorsements from popular people can skew margins.”

Other recent polls have given Clinton a single-digit lead heading into today's make-or-break nomination contest, the first in six weeks.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, Pennsylvania, polls

If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain

PRINCETON, NJ -- A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.

This is amazing. Remember when Barack smugly declared "I wil get the people who voted for her".

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, Obama, polls

This ABC report points out the latest Gallup poll that has Clinton back on top by 1 point nationally. The first time in a month since she's been ahead.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, Obama, polls

The Elusive National Lead:

Neither candidate has captured a double-digit lead over the other since early February, when Clinton led Obama by 11 points.

Labels: Election 2008, polls

Obama's lead over Clinton narrows: Reuters poll | Politics | Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's big national lead over Hillary Clinton has all but evaporated (e.a.) in the U.S. presidential race, and both Democrats trail Republican John McCain, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

The poll showed Obama had only a statistically insignificant lead of 47 percent to 44percent over Clinton, down sharply from a 14 point edge he held over her in February when he was riding the tide of 10 straight victories.

Illinois Sen. Obama, who would be America's first black president, has been buffeted by attacks in recent weeks from New York Sen. Clinton over his fitness to serve as commander-in-chief and by a tempest over racially charged sermons given by his Chicago preacher...

McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama (e.a.) in the November presidential election, according to the poll.

Clinton is also closing in on Obama in NC. Hillary Clinton has cut Barack Obama’s lead in North Carolina to one point, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. Obama leads 44-43 in the state, after leading by four points in a similar poll conducted by PPP two weeks ago. Clinton has particularly made gains with female voters, with whom she now has a slight lead after trailing in the previous poll.

“Some folks in the national media have been treating North Carolina as if winning it is a given for Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The reality is that the state is pretty close, and either candidate could emerge with a victory.”

Recent PPP polls in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida have shown Obama struggling in
the wake of the recent controversy surrounding his pastor. The survey also found Richard Moore gaining 17 points from a poll two weeks ago to get within a 44-34 margin of Bev Perdue.

In the Democratic race for US Senate, Kay Hagan continues to hold a double digit lead
over Jim Neal. Hagan is at 22% to Neal’s 11%, followed by Duskin Lassiter at 5% and
Marcus Williams and Howard Staley with 3%.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary, Obama, polls