Blue Spot

Big-State Clout Puts Clinton Firmly In The Lead -- Courant.com

While Sen. Obama has prevailed in 27 states, Sen. Clinton's 17 states include California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and Michigan. In fact, if the states that have had a primary or caucus are ranked according to population size, one sees that of the 10 most populous states, Sen. Clinton has won eight and Sen. Obama only two. Considering the 10 least populous states that have voted, one sees a flip in the results — Sen. Obama has prevailed in eight and Sen. Clinton in only two.

Another way of looking at the status of the candidates is to use 2004 election results to ask how many 2004 Electoral College votes in states that John Kerry won does each candidate have to date. In fact, if one sums the Electoral College vote of the states that went Democrat in 2004 according to whether Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama prevailed, one finds that Sen. Clinton again leads, with 159 of the 2004 Democratic Electoral College votes in her column vs. 85 in Sen. Obama's column.

With only seven of those Electoral College votes in states yet to hold their primary or caucus, Sen. Obama's campaign cannot close this gap. It seems that the strongest Democratic presidential candidate would be the one who is strongest in the "must win" Democratic states. Further, the strongest Democratic candidate should be the one who will be extremely competitive in Ohio and Florida. Again, Hillary Clinton wins in these respects.

Labels: Election 2008, Hillary